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The spectacular work ‘Another Place’ by the British sculptor Antony Gormley[1], of one hundred naked men scattered along 1.5 miles of Crosby Beach in Liverpool, provides a useful twice-daily reminder about hidden risks in the financial world.  As Warren Buffet once said about easy money and favourable markets hiding risks:

‘You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.’

The demise of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is one such case of being exposed by a falling tide.  The bank focused on providing banking services, including the placing of deposits, to many early stage and start-up tech firms, alongside venture capital firms, both in the US, and via SVB UK, to UK firms.  At the end of last week, depositors began to worry about whether the bank was going to be able to meet its obligations and began withdrawing their cash.  The root cause of their concern lay in the exposed reality of the risks the bank had taken by accepting deposits and then investing the money in longer-dated US Treasuries.

That worked just fine when short-term interest rates were near zero and longer-dated bonds paid higher yields.  Unfortunately, SVB’s skinny dip into the bond market was exposed by the rapid increase in bond yields in the second half of 2022, which saw yields on 10 Year Treasuries rise from 2% a year ago to almost 4% at the end of last week.  That put a huge dent in SVB’s balance sheet, due to the losses incurred on the bonds as a consequence of these yield rises (bond prices move in the opposite direction to bond yields).  This in turn lead to a rapid loss of confidence that the bank could meet its liabilities.

SVB UK was purchased by HSBC for £1 and its depositors’ money was secured, allowing its young tech firm clients to avoid a severe, even terminal, liquidity crunch.  In the US, the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the FDIC, which secures deposits up to US$250,000, came up with a plan to protect all depositors, including those uninsured by the FDIC.  The Fed also set up a borrowing facility for other banks to provide liquidity against US Treasuries (and some other assets) based on the bonds’ par (i.e. redemption) value at maturity.  Although other small banks are under pressure, this has likely stopped any systemic risk to the banking sector.  Equity and bond holders of SVB rightly face the risk of losing their capital.

We may see some volatility in bank stocks until the full picture becomes clearer (i.e. is everyone else wearing swimming trunks and will the Fed’s towel cover the embarrassment of any who are not?).

What lessons can we learn?

Perhaps the most important aspect of this debacle is to identify what lessons we can learn.  Here they are:

1. A deposit is an unsecured loan to a financial institution. Your money moves onto their balance sheet and you only get your money back if the bank remains solvent.
2. Government backed insurance schemes, have limits on how much they will protect you. For example, the UK’s FSCS guarantee on deposits is only up to £85,000 per eligible person banking group[2].
3. Diversification is critical to managing risk. For those with cash, diversifying it between banks or via a money market fund should be an important consideration and advice should be sought where necessary.  CFO’s of these tech start-ups, and those of the venture capital firms, should have known better.
4. The other aspect of diversification is at the security level. SVB has a global market capitalisation of around 0.03%, which is an insignificant amount in a diversified, systematic portfolio.
5. Never assume that all financial institutions are smart. The age old mistake of borrowing short and lending long has brought down many institutions over the ages, not least Northern Rock in the UK during the Credit Crisis of 2007-9.  Many institutions regrettably pumped client money into Bernie Madoff’s multi-billion dollar Ponzi-scheme fraud through insufficient due diligence.  More recently, many high profile firms backed Sam Bankman-Fried’s now-collapsed FTX exchange in crypto-world (another area where a lack of swimming trunks is rapidly being revealed).

A systematic investment process can protect you from many risks, not least through broad diversification.  Whilst it is not Canute-like and the market’s tide will ebb and flow, at least you know that you are swimming with your trunks on!

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Reference to specific products is made only to help make educational points. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

[1]      It is a most spectacular installation, not to be missed if you happen to find yourself in Liverpool. https://www.visitliverpool.com/things-to-do/another-place-by-antony-gormley-p160981

[2]      More information here: https://www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/banks-building-societies/

Most investors – at some time – will be either tempted to time when to be in or out of equity markets – or wish they had when markets fall.  It would be great to be able to capture the upsides and avoid the downsides, but that is wishful thinking.

Investors may well underestimate the rapidity and magnitude of the movements that markets make, although the very material double digit daily moves around the Covid- crisis (March 2020) provided a useful lesson. In fact, a small number of days account for much of the market movement over time.  Picking which those days are – either to be in or out of the markets – is an extremely difficult prospect and the chances of long-term success are rare.  An analysis of missing the best days in the market (Albion, 2023) provides some food for thought, as the figure below illustrates.

Figure 1: Missing the best few days in the markets could be very costly

Source: Albion Strategic Consulting.
Data: Morningstar Direct © All rights reserved: SSgA SPDR ETF. Returns in USD. 23/01/1993 – 30/01/2023

Whilst these types of study imply a binary approach to being invested in equities or cash, which is a somewhat unreal scenario, it is evident that a few good days, weeks or months drive the bulk of market returns and missing them can be costly. Missing the best 30 days in this 30-year period deliver only 17% of the rewards that the market delivered[1].

Likewise missing the worst 30 days would be highly beneficial, yet the ability to pick them does not seem to show up in the data. The October 2022 Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng ‘mini-budget’ in the UK provided evidence of just how quickly new information can impact markets, in that case the bond market.  Being right is quite a challenge. Being wrong can be very costly. The odds of success in market timing are slim.

A seminal piece of UK research (Cuthbertson et al., 2006) concluded that only around 1.5 % of UK equity funds demonstrate positive market timing ability.  The Nobel Laureate Professor William Sharpe agrees:

‘An [investor] who keeps assets in stocks at all times is like an optimistic market timer. His actions are consistent with a policy of predicting a good year every year. While such a manager may know that such predictions will be wrong roughly one year out of three, such an attitude is nonetheless likely to lead to results superior to those achieved by most active market timers.’

Stay invested!

[1]      As an aside, the data used is from the first US ETF launched thirty years ago, almost to the day.  It was revolutionary at the time for providing cheap and tradable (not necessarily a good thing!) access to the S&P500 index.

Being an investor is never easy because, as humans, we tend to live in the moment responding to our emotions, the environment around us and the circumstances we find ourselves in.  From an evolutionary standpoint that has served us well as a species helping us to survive, but as investors we need to remain focused on the long-term goals that we have and not what is going on in the day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year of the markets.  This is evident from the two charts below.

Each of these charts show that if we listen to this noise, we would spend most of our time being afraid of markets instead of embracing them for the returns that taking on sensible risks should deliver.  In equity market parlance, a ‘correction’ is deemed to be a fall of 10% or more and a ‘bear market’ is a fall of 20% or more. The columns are the annual returns of the market, and the diamonds represent the magnitude of fall from the market high in that year.

Figure 1: Global equity markets fall from a high every single year

Data: Live fund data used to represent asset classes, in GBP. See endnote for details.

It is pretty evident that any investor looking to profit from this would need some amazing form of 20-20 foresight to predict these short-term market movements, acting in advance of them happening and then getting back into the market again at the appropriate time.  Simply reacting, post-event, to market falls will invariably be a losing strategy. In reality, at any point in time, all of the information held by all investors trading in markets is reflected in current prices quite efficiently.  Prices will therefore move only on the release of new information, which is by definition a random event. As the Nobel Laureate Professor Robert Merton recently stated[1]:

‘If the market is disagreeing with me, or doesn’t seem to be aligned with me, that could be that I know things the market doesn’t, but it also could be that the market knows things [I] don’t!’

Investors were reminded in 2022 that bond returns can go down as well as up.  The same challenge in terms of reacting to falls in bond markets applies.  In almost every year, bond markets fall from an intra-year high.

Figure 2: Global bond markets also fall from a high every single year

Data: Live fund data used to represent asset classes, in GBP. See endnote for details.

Trying to time when to be in or out of bonds – and presumably into cash – could result in eroding away the term and credit premia that a sensible structure of short-dated global bonds hedged to Sterling has the opportunity to provide for those focused on their true investment horizons.

As the wise industry consultant and author Charles Ellis states:

‘In investing, activity is almost always in surplus!’

We agree.  Remain focused on your long-term goals, stay invested and rebalance regularly, for a simpler life and the likelihood of better outcomes.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Reference to specific products is made only to help make educational points. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Data series used: global equities – Vanguard Global Stock Index $ Acc in GBP; global bonds – Dimensional Global Short Dated Bd Acc in GBP

[1] Rational Reminder podcast January 5, 2023 – Episode 234. This episode is really worth listening to https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234

At the start of 2022 investors needed reminding that investing is not an easy game, despite having enjoyed around a decade of relatively strong – and fairly consistent – market returns, even in light of a global pandemic, recession, and political polarisation. 2022 has laid bare the fact that investing can very much be a game of ‘three steps forward, one step back’. If there was no risk of market downside, it would be unreasonable to expect any return at all above cash. This short note provides a brief look at the past 12 months, and highlights some of the lessons we can learn as investors.

Looking backwards

For many investors 2022 was a relatively tough year, with returns ranging from benign to poor across most major asset classes – global developed value companies being an exception. Rising prices make returns significantly worse on an after-inflation basis, with year-on-year inflation in the UK having reached levels not seen for decades. The year was particularly challenging for investors in bonds, as yields have risen (and thus prices have fallen) across much of the world. Bondholders with longer and lower quality debt suffered greater capital falls – shorter dated, high-quality bonds continue to be preferred.

Figure 1: Global investment returns – sensible assets 2022 returns

Data: Funds used to represent asset classes, in GBP. See endnote for details.

With few places to hide most investors will have finished the year in negative territory, which is to be expected from time to time. The magnitude of the losses, however, should lie well within the tolerances of their financial plan. Investors with a reasonable amount of equity exposure should be able to withstand more material falls than those experienced in 2022 (global equities fell by over 40% during the Credit Crisis, for example). That said, those overweighting value companies and focusing on shorter-dated bonds will find themselves in better space than most, though this is little consolation when returns are still negative in an absolute sense. Investing is never a straight-line journey.

Sensible, systematic portfolios comprising a diversified basket of equities – with tilts to value and smaller companies – paired with short dated high-quality bonds – from low risk to high risk – will have provided better results than most other solutions in 2022. Such solutions outperformed over 70%[1] of professionally managed multi-asset funds over the 12 months due to these portfolio decisions.

Investors with portfolios denominated in GBP have benefited from the strong performance of the US dollar, which has meant overseas assets translate back to more in GBP terms. In USD terms (which is often reported in the press) global equities fell around 18% in 2022, around 10% more than when viewed in GBP terms. Some of the major US firms like Tesla and Meta which have hit headlines with share price falls of over 70% and 60% respectively in the past year, however, they only represent a small allocation – and thus have a small impact – in a well-diversified portfolio.

The asset class that – uncharacteristically – stole the headlines (for all the wrong reasons) was fixed income. Many bond indices experienced their worst calendar year on record. This was chiefly due to a swift increase in the compensation bondholders demand for lending their capital, on the back of – more persistent than foreseen – high inflation and corresponding rising policy rates from central banks. Rising borrowing costs, and little yield buffer to begin with, have meant absolute falls for fixed income investors, something that few investors will have seen, in a year when equities fell too. The last time was 1994.

The reality is, however, that higher yields are a good thing for investors with time horizons longer than the maturity of their bonds. Over time, the new bonds being invested in have been at a higher yield, providing a larger yield cushion going forward and reducing the chance of absolute falls on an interim basis. Bondholders start 2023 in far better shape – from an expected return perspective – than 12 months prior. Today, 5-year gilt yields stand at 3.5%, as opposed to -0.1% at the start of 2022.

Looking forwards

Uncertainty abounds – it always does. Basing investment decisions on forecasts or judgments is generally best avoided. Forming market outlooks can be used to create accountability, or perhaps at best just for a bit of fun. After stating his column’s 2023 predictions Robert Armstrong, of the Financial Times, questions: ‘Do I have high confidence in any of this? Heck no.’. There is no shortage of seemingly sensible predictions on market performance and global developments[2], nor any effective method to separate those that will be more or less accurate.

Investors should therefore look to the future with the anticipation that new information will come to light, and markets will react quickly to take it into account. Without the ability to profit directly from superior information one, therefore, should construct a diversified portfolio built to weather all storms, guided by an ever-growing body of academic literature. If, for example, inflation or growth come in higher or lower than expected, some parts of the portfolio will – by design – be helping, and others detracting from, performance.  That is what diversification is!

With the reasonable belief that risk and reward go hand in hand, each day it should be expected that incremental risk taking in a portfolio will be rewarded, such as owning equities or bonds over cash. However, on a daily (or even multi-year) basis – which in the context of a true investment time horizon is miniscule – the expected daily reward is dominated by unexpected noise, which can be positive or negative.

And finally…

This note has focused on investing. Outside of investors’ portfolios, Putin continues wage his illegal war in Ukraine and much of the world is feeling the repercussions of the supply chain impacts. The NHS is under considerable strain. Increasing borrowing costs and a higher cost of living place pressure on many of us. These challenges provide a stark reminder that we should be grateful for what we can be. News outlets have a bias towards reporting bad news, which is hardly surprising. Bad news sells.

Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times plainly states that journalists ‘report on planes that crash, not planes that land’ and writes[3] a column on some significant achievements made by the human race in 2022. For example, solar power is now on track to overtake coal as the world’s leading power source in the next five years. Time away from day-to-day news can help one feel more positive or reading information from news outlets such as Good News Network®[4] can be a refreshing exercise. Enjoy a fulfilled 2023 and all the better news it may bring.

From an investing perspective, we are hopeful for the best in 2023 and beyond but remain prepared for the worst.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Data series used

Weights for each portfolio are pro-rated up/down according to portfolio equity allocation. Fixed income funds in blue, equity funds in green. More information is available on request.

[1] Source: Albion Strategic Consulting. Systematic portfolios breakdown found in endnotes.

[2] Armstrong provides a list of outlooks from several significant market participants: https://www.ft.com/content/7803704f-8161-4af8-b9b5-1a7ccd5c2cba

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/opinion/2022-good-news.html

[4] https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/

Sensible investing is about taking on sensible risks in your portfolio, which starts with owning equities over cash.  Historical data and logic tell us to expect a premium for doing so. In the long run this has been in the region of 3% to 4% per annum.  It may not sound much, but when compounded over time it has an amazing beneficial impact on the level of wealth accumulated, and therefore life choices that can be made.  Let’s generously assume that cash delivers 1% p.a. above inflation and equities deliver 5% p.a. above inflation.  A sixty-year-old, perhaps approaching retirement, should be planning to live 100 these days. Investing in cash they would turn £1,000 of purchasing power into £1,500, whereas if they had invested in equities, £1,000 would be worth a little over £7,000.  That provides materially greater choices and fewer worries about money.

The challenge that all investors face is that to capture these returns, owners of equities (part shares in real companies) is that they are likely to experience some tough times in the markets. The average 20-year global equity exposure (since 1955) turned £100 of purchasing power into around £250[1]. Although one unfortunate cohort of equity investors saw £100 turned into £85 over 20 years.  In fact, on any one day you have something like a 1-in-2 chance that the equity risk premium will be negative, but over 5 years this falls to 1-in-8, and to around 1-in-10 at 10 years.  The longer the period of time invested for, the greater the likelihood – but never the guarantee – that returns will be positive.

Investors could capture the returns of global equities using a cheap single index-tacking fund that captures the returns from global markets.  It is certainly not a bad place to start, a view supported by Eugene Fama, renowned for his work on efficient markets for which he earned himself a Nobel Prize in Economics:

‘You’ve got to talk your way out of a market cap weighted portfolio’

There are some conversations – led by Fama himself – that suggest that owning overweights – or tilts – to specific parts of the market that have higher risks and thus higher expected returns may be one occasion to step away from markets, for those who have a preference to do so.  These incremental returns, as we have seen above, are valuable to investors.

One such ‘risk factor’ is the ‘value’ premium, which is incorporated into portfolios.  Accepting that markets work pretty well, incorporating information into prices efficiently (again another useful assumption to make), their prices must hold some useful information.  Comparing equities to each other, scaled by either a balance sheet or profit and loss item, such as book value or earnings, allows us to rank them into ‘cheaper’ or ‘value’ stocks (e.g. low price relative to book value) and ‘expensive’ or ‘growth’ stocks (being the opposite).  Given that the price is right (markets work) value stocks are not cheap in the ‘it’s a bargain’ way, but cheap because something else is going on.  That something else is higher risk.  However, the flip side of higher risk is higher return, which is evidenced in the historical data.  It works across different time periods, markets and even asset classes. Different measures (e.g. price-to-cashflow, price-to-earnings, price-to-dividends) all work as robust measures of value.  It has also been shown that the value premium can be extracted successfully in real, live funds.

Like the equity premium, extended periods of time can occur when the value premium is negative.  Over the ten or so years to the end of 2020, owning value stocks was a tough place to be in a relative sense as growth stocks that became more and more ‘expensive’, despite delivering strong absolute returns.  Some investors may have abandoned their value stocks, as they could not take the relative pain.  As they sell them and go underweight value stocks, someone else has to be persuaded to buy them and hold the overweight position, improving the latter’s expected returns (remember it’s a zero-sum world out there).  You get paid for holding stocks that kick you when you are down!  However, if you hold a robust premium that meets stringent hurdles – as value does – the key is to hold not fold.

Take a look at what has been going on lately. Value stocks have been clawing back some of their relative underperformance to the broad market, delivering strong returns in markets where growth (‘expensive’) stocks have fallen hard in 2021-2, dragging down the broad market, not least in the US.  This strong positive premium has been as seen in emerging markets too.

Figure 1: Global value has been delivering a positive premium of late

Data: Dimensional Global Value Fund Acc. in GBP and Vanguard FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF (VEVE)[2].

Steeping away from the market takes courage and discipline but is likely to be worth the wait.  One swallow does not make a summer, but positive outcomes are always welcome.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

[1] Albion Strategic Consulting (2021) – internal analysis.

[2] Note that these two funds have been used purely for educational purposes and reference to them should not be construed as any form of recommendation.

Pacem is delighted to announce that we have have been shortlisted in three categories for the 2022 Eastside Awards.

The Eastside Awards exist to showcase the best in East Belfast and Pacem is a proud recipient of the ‘Eastside Award for Employer of the Year’ in 2020 and a double award recipient of both the ‘Eastside Award for Employer of the Year’ and ‘The Eastside Award for Business Growth in 2021’.

Speaking on what it means to win and Eastside Award and to be shortlisted again in 2022, Daniel Glover, MD at Pacem said: “We first heard about the Eastside Awards through East Belfast Enterprise as we were providing some accountancy advice to some of the early-stage businesses in the building. As someone who both resides, and works in the East Belfast area, I instantly thought it was a fantastic initiative to showcase some of the many vibrant businesses and people in the area. Over the years we have experienced a period of rapid growth, going from a team of 3 to 19, and we thought it would be great to enter the awards to showcase how far the business has come and grown in a short space of time. We brought the team to the gala dinner at the Stormont hotel where we were delighted to find out we had won ‘Employer of the year’ in 2020 and then again in 2021 along with the award for ‘Business Growth’, we had a fantastic night out with the team on both occasions celebrating all of their hard work and efforts over the years. He continued: “We have worked exceptionally hard on growing the business and developing a fantastic team and it is great to have that hard work and effort publicly showcased. The strength of our team combined with coordinated wealth planning and accounting services, are what sets Pacem apart from our competition and drives our continued success and we are looking forward to bringing the team along the the Gala dinner on 27th January to celebrate not just our success, but the successes of all the other worthy finalists who are making East Belfast a better place to live, work and play”.

The full list of the 2022 Eastside Awards in association with George Best Belfast City Airport finalists are:

Eastside Award for Apprentice of the Year sponsored by Wolseley Plumb & Parts:

Benjamin Bennett, Horatio Todds; James Mallin, Totalis; Jordan Sloan, Titanic Hotel Belfast

Eastside Award for Best Organisation to Work For sponsored by Fleet Financial:

Ashfield Girls’ High School; Connswater Homes; Pacem

Eastside Award for Business Start Up sponsored by Belfast City Council:

Bullhouse East; Joob Joobs; Murphy & Bailey

Eastside Award for Business Growth sponsored by We’resure Insurance Services:

Art Loves; La Bella Vita; Pacem

Eastside Award for Community Impact sponsored by Belfast Harbour:

EastSide Greenways; East Belfast Street Team; In This Together

Eastside Award for Contribution to the Arts sponsored by Millar McCall Wylie:

Ajendance NI; The Bright Umbrella Drama Company; The Gertrude Star Flute Band, Fifes & Fusion

Eastside Award for Environmental Sustainability sponsored by Kainos:

Davines; Pacem; The Wardrobe

Eastside Award for Excellence in Health and Wellbeing sponsored by Better Gyms:

Ashfield Girls’ High School; Helping Hands Autism Support Group; Jump Jiggle and Jive

Eastside Award for Favourite Classroom Assistant in East Belfast sponsored by Belfast Live:

Gary Chambers, Lough View Integrated Primary School; Kirstie Shaw, Ashfield Girls’ High School; Stephanie Wilson, Ashfield Boys’ High School

Eastside Award for Favourite Eatery (Café/Restaurant) in East Belfast sponsored by Solv Group:

Bodega Bagels; Gardener’s Rest at Hillmount; Lazy Claire Patisserie

Eastside Award for Favourite Teacher in East Belfast sponsored by The Open University:

Suzanne Greenwood, Orangefield Primary School; Mr Pollock, Elmgrove Primary School; Brendan Shannon, Lisnasharragh Primary School

Eastside Award for Sports Initiative of the Year sponsored by Phoenix Natural Gas:

CIYMS, Men’s Hockey Club; Titanic Tigers Special Olympics Club; Tullycarnet Boxing Club

Eastside Award for Tourism Experience sponsored by EastSide Partnership:

Glentoran in the Community; Scott’s Jazz Club; Titanic Hotel Belfast

Eastside Award for Young Person of the Year sponsored by George Best Belfast City Airport:

Ryan Jamison, Refresh Property Solutions Ltd; Lisa Jiang, Ashfield Girls’ High School; Rachael McDowell, Ashfield Girls’ High School

Eastside Award for Volunteer of the Year sponsored by East Belfast Mission:

Susan Gillen, Titanic Tigers Special Olympics Young Athletes Club; Rachael McDowell, Ashfield Girls’ High School; Chloe O’Neill, Youth Initiatives

Hosted by television presenter Tara Mills, winners will be announced at the glittering celebration in Hastings Stormont Hotel on Friday 27 January 2023.

A cohort of 30 people under the age of 30 has been convened to lead the local response of the younger generation to the climate emergency. In the first of its kind for Northern Ireland and the UK, the class of 2022/23 30 Under 30 Climate Change-Makers was competitively assembled by environmental charity Keep Northern Ireland Beautiful, and supported by Pacem, Pinsent Masons & Danske Bank, in an application process that attracted over 100 submissions from young people from across the country. The group made their introductions on Friday 11 November in a ‘Finance, Economy and Business’ workshop led by business and media commentator Justin Urquhart Stewart and the Belfast-based emissions-data company Catagen. The programme pulls together individuals from an array of backgrounds, including representatives from some of Northern Ireland’s leading public, private and third-sector organisations.

Úna Barrett, a 30 Under 30 participant said, “The changing climate continues to shape our lives immeasurably. The Climate Change-Makers programme has created an invaluable network of like-minded individuals and provided us with a crucial platform for cross-sector collaboration and idea sharing. Being involved in this prestigious programme and meeting my fellow participants has reignited my hope for the future of the planet.”

Jenna Potter, the programme manager at Keep Northern Ireland Beautiful added, “30 Under 30 Climate Change-Makers is a fantastic platform, bringing together our brightest and most climate-engaged individuals who have a passion to make a change. The programme aims to give young people an opportunity for collaboration, connection and the knowledge needed to shape the environmental future of Northern Ireland.”

Founder of Pacem, Daniel Glover explained, “Environmental Sustainability is something that has been at the heart of our business ethos for quite some time and is an area of continuous development. We are delighted to support the 30 Under 30 Climate change makers programme in order to promote positive environment and sustainability outcomes in the wider community. We are looking forward to watch the cohort grow and become the next generation of leaders here in Northern Ireland and further afield”.

Intended as an annual opportunity for anyone who is aged 30 and under and residing in Northern Ireland, 30 Under 30 Northern Ireland Climate Change-Makers was inspired by the Environmental Educators 30 Under 30 initiative that was introduced by the North American Association for Environmental Education in 2016. The programme is delivered by Keep Northern Ireland Beautiful and Podiem, and funded by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), Pacem, Pinsent Masons and Danske Bank. For more information on the programme and its participant, visit www.keepnorthernirelandbeautiful.org/30under30-ccm

Three prime ministers and three chancellors in as many months, certainly feels chaotic, possibly a bit embarrassing, as well as a little depressing.  There is no doubt that the UK could do with some stability, fiscal rectitude and general leadership. Let’s hope that Rishi Sunak can deliver some. Let us think about the magnitude of what has just happened.  The Conservative party decided, whether rightly or wrongly depending on one’s opinion, that Boris Johnson had to go, fearful of its increasingly appalling polling numbers with the electorate.  A prolonged and uninspiring leadership contest over the long hot summer, ushered in Liz Truss for a fleeting moment before the markets, and again the fear of even worse polling figures, forced her to fall on her sword.  That is all well documented but misses a key point.

What we should be reflecting on is not this mess but the fact that we live in a free, democratic nation, where the government is, as described by Abraham Lincoln in his Gettysburg Address of 1863, ‘of the people, by the people, for the people’.  Living in a society where the ability of the Conservative party to serially partake in the regicide of its leader, in fear of the will of the people, and for voters and opposition parties to freely voice their own opinions, without fear or violence, is a privilege, whatever your political hue.

Contrast that with scenes from the recent Chinese Communist Party Congress of President Xi, a dictator reneging on the established term limits, having an ex-leader humiliated and dragged from proceedings and filling the Politburo with ‘yes’ men, sits in stark contrast.  Political opponents are not just miffed, as they are in the UK, they live in fear of their lives.  Arguing over a pint as to whether there should be a general election, or whether the Conservatives still have a valid mandate, given that it won a majority of 80 at the last election and the UK has a system of parliamentary democracy, is a luxury for those living in a free, stable and open society.

The will of the market, like the people, is a strong democratic force.  Its role is to set prices by incorporating all known information, without fear or favour, to reach an equilibrium price, allowing investors to allocate their capital efficiently.  Liz Truss certainly understood pretty quickly the power of the bond market, as it evaluated her vision for growth against the risks of unfunded tax cuts. The market did not like what it saw and the yield it expected to be paid to lend to the UK government rose, impacting mortgage and other borrowing rates, which in turn was reflected in peoples’ views on her policies.

In an open society the value of a free press is also immeasurable, providing access to information quickly and generally accurately – or at least at risk of fact checking or criticism by other media outlets and commentators – which feeds into both market prices and national opinion.  It looks into dark corners and drives accountability.  For sure, news is a self-selected sub-set of what is going on in the world and more likely to reflect disasters, acts of violence, and thus at risk of portraying a more negative outlook than perhaps truly exists.  We can see in Russia and China what the harmful consequences are of a state-controlled media.  You may not like the Daily Telegraph or the Guardian, depending on which side of the political fence you sit, but to have the choice is, again, something to be valued.

For sure we are in for some tough times economically but remember that at least we live in a society where we are free to express our views, where markets work and the media – however annoying it can sometimes be – helps to hold our politicians’ feet to the fire.   Stay positive!

If you have any questions, thoughts or actions relating to the content of this article please get in touch with us by calling us on 028 9099 6948 or by emailing info@pacem-advisory.com